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New Hampshire Predictions
After correctly predicting the winning order in Iowa, I feel a bit of pressure to not only accurately predict New Hampshire, but to also do it with a list that isn't quite supported by the polls.
The conventional wisdom and most polls would put the order this way: Kerry, Dean, Clark or Edwards, and who cares after that. However, my contention all week has been that Dean's yell was way overplayed by the media, and I think the people in New Hampshire are starting to figure that out. Dean has been rising for the last many days (ever since his ABC Primetime interview, in fact), and is only 3 points behind Kerry in Zogby's latest, although nobody else agrees with these numbers. Edwards has been up all week. Clark hasn't really moved much, and Kerry has sat high, and maybe fallen a bit.
Dean's new stump is better than the old one. Its a bit more relaxed, more like he was earlier in the campaign (Kos agrees). He's a governor--a Washington outsider. Kerry has the lead and the momentum. It could go either way, but I call it like this: Kerry, Dean, Edwards, Clark. My caveats are that Dean will be within 3 points of Kerry, and Edwards will surge past Clark and come within 8 points of Dean.
Posted on January 26, 2004 10:21 PM
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